Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Huafon Microfibre (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (300180.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.38 - $0.73$0.52
Multi-Stage$0.35 - $0.38$0.37
Blended Fair Value$0.45
Current Price$7.33
Upside-93.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.05%6.30%0.020.030.030.030.020.020.020.010.010.01
YoY Growth---45.41%-2.25%-7.03%72.14%-14.29%26.00%121.41%0.00%12.74%-20.00%
Dividend Yield--0.25%0.86%0.74%0.68%0.34%0.27%0.18%0.09%0.08%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.515.323.19
Cash Retained (M)21.3221.3221.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.51-5.32-3.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.8116.0018.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,761.571,761.571,761.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate4.30%5.30%6.30%
Fair Value$0.38$0.52$0.73
Upside / Downside-94.76%-92.84%-90.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.5344.7947.1649.6652.2955.0656.71
Payout Ratio49.87%57.90%65.92%73.95%81.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.2125.9331.0936.7242.8649.5552.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate4.30%5.30%6.30%
Year 1 PV (M)23.4523.6723.90
Year 2 PV (M)25.4225.9126.40
Year 3 PV (M)27.1527.9428.74
Year 4 PV (M)28.6629.7730.92
Year 5 PV (M)29.9631.4232.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)485.10508.80533.43
Equity Value (M)619.73647.52676.33
Shares Outstanding (M)1,761.571,761.571,761.57
Fair Value$0.35$0.37$0.38
Upside / Downside-95.20%-94.99%-94.76%

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