Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Sunway Communication Co., Ltd. (300136.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.20 - $76.93$32.77
Multi-Stage$11.74 - $12.85$12.28
Blended Fair Value$22.53
Current Price$25.80
Upside-12.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.74%43.87%0.160.100.100.140.110.090.130.080.050.03
YoY Growth--55.84%-3.62%-25.70%26.80%17.70%-30.10%71.29%64.74%72.95%568.56%
Dividend Yield--0.66%0.50%0.50%0.78%0.39%0.27%0.45%0.21%0.14%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)614.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)578.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.9776.8646.11
Cash Retained (M)578.41578.41578.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.97-76.86-46.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)455.43501.55532.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)953.70953.70953.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.530.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.530.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.560.60
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.20$32.77$76.93
Upside / Downside-25.56%27.02%198.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)614.86654.82697.38742.71790.99842.41867.68
Payout Ratio5.93%22.74%39.56%56.37%73.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.45148.92275.86418.68578.89758.16802.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)136.18137.47138.76
Year 2 PV (M)230.66235.06239.49
Year 3 PV (M)320.11329.30338.66
Year 4 PV (M)404.73420.29436.30
Year 5 PV (M)484.69508.10532.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,620.7010,085.3810,567.85
Equity Value (M)11,197.0711,715.6012,253.47
Shares Outstanding (M)953.70953.70953.70
Fair Value$11.74$12.28$12.85
Upside / Downside-54.49%-52.39%-50.20%

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