Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tech Semiconductors Co., Ltd. (300046.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.11 - $3.10$2.58
Multi-Stage$3.00 - $3.28$3.14
Blended Fair Value$2.86
Current Price$43.05
Upside-93.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.270.120.030.150.24
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%125.00%300.00%-80.00%-37.50%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.27%0.71%0.24%1.02%2.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.697.934.76
Cash Retained (M)29.1329.1329.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.69-7.93-4.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.4521.2024.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)236.59236.59236.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-0.17%0.83%1.83%
Fair Value$2.11$2.58$3.10
Upside / Downside-95.10%-94.00%-92.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.4363.9664.4965.0365.5766.1168.10
Payout Ratio54.07%61.26%68.44%75.63%82.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.3039.1844.1449.1854.3059.5062.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-0.17%0.83%1.83%
Year 1 PV (M)35.2735.6235.97
Year 2 PV (M)35.7636.4837.21
Year 3 PV (M)35.8736.9638.07
Year 4 PV (M)35.6537.1038.59
Year 5 PV (M)35.1636.9638.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)532.50559.71588.02
Equity Value (M)710.22742.84776.70
Shares Outstanding (M)236.59236.59236.59
Fair Value$3.00$3.14$3.28
Upside / Downside-93.03%-92.71%-92.37%

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