Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fujicco Co., Ltd. (2908.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$311.68 - $459.81$382.69
Multi-Stage$558.57 - $614.20$585.84
Blended Fair Value$484.27
Current Price$1,594.00
Upside-69.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.87%2.54%46.1246.0546.7245.3543.2840.0538.9637.9435.8335.79
YoY Growth--0.15%-1.43%3.02%4.79%8.07%2.80%2.69%5.88%0.10%-0.29%
Dividend Yield--2.89%2.49%2.48%2.27%2.27%2.00%1.89%1.34%1.39%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,130.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)328.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)802.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)226.00141.2584.75
Cash Retained (M)802.00802.00802.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-226.00-141.25-84.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)576.00660.75717.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.4728.4728.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share20.2323.2125.20
LTM Dividend per Share11.5211.5211.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share20.2323.2125.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend31.7634.7336.72
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Fair Value$311.68$382.69$459.81
Upside / Downside-80.45%-75.99%-71.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,130.001,119.061,108.221,097.491,086.861,076.331,108.62
Payout Ratio29.03%41.22%53.42%65.61%77.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)328.00461.29591.97720.07845.63968.701,025.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Year 1 PV (M)422.73427.04431.36
Year 2 PV (M)497.14507.33517.63
Year 3 PV (M)554.17571.31588.79
Year 4 PV (M)596.41621.12646.59
Year 5 PV (M)626.10658.69692.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,204.8013,892.1814,607.89
Equity Value (M)15,901.3616,677.6817,484.88
Shares Outstanding (M)28.4728.4728.47
Fair Value$558.57$585.84$614.20
Upside / Downside-64.96%-63.25%-61.47%

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