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Definitive Analysis

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Lake Materials Co., Ltd. (281740.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,651.81 - $2,382.76$2,007.91
Multi-Stage$2,674.84 - $2,939.70$2,804.70
Blended Fair Value$2,406.31
Current Price$12,090.00
Upside-80.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,194.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,286.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,907.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,038.871,899.301,139.58
Cash Retained (M)11,907.8411,907.8411,907.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,038.87-1,899.30-1,139.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,868.9710,008.5410,768.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.6665.6665.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share135.08152.43164.00
LTM Dividend per Share50.0550.0550.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share135.08152.43164.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend185.13202.49214.06
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,651.81$2,007.91$2,382.76
Upside / Downside-86.34%-83.39%-80.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,194.3615,042.4214,892.0014,743.0814,595.6514,449.6914,883.18
Payout Ratio21.63%35.30%48.98%62.65%76.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,286.535,310.567,293.799,236.8311,140.2713,004.7213,766.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,823.594,872.814,922.03
Year 2 PV (M)6,017.466,140.906,265.58
Year 3 PV (M)6,921.707,135.767,354.19
Year 4 PV (M)7,582.567,896.828,220.76
Year 5 PV (M)8,039.918,458.578,894.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)142,243.25149,650.18157,362.51
Equity Value (M)175,628.48184,155.05193,019.56
Shares Outstanding (M)65.6665.6665.66
Fair Value$2,674.84$2,804.70$2,939.70
Upside / Downside-77.88%-76.80%-75.68%

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