Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kagome Co., Ltd. (2811.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,821.53 - $28,346.43$24,693.89
Multi-Stage$4,317.60 - $4,728.96$4,519.47
Blended Fair Value$14,606.68
Current Price$2,870.50
Upside408.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.11%4.94%37.7835.0435.0534.4233.2837.9928.5323.3123.3917.60
YoY Growth--7.81%-0.03%1.83%3.44%-12.41%33.17%22.39%-0.32%32.87%-24.53%
Dividend Yield--1.29%0.96%1.13%1.10%0.95%1.35%0.91%0.62%0.81%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,420.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,277.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,143.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,684.001,677.501,006.50
Cash Retained (M)8,143.008,143.008,143.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,684.00-1,677.50-1,006.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,459.006,465.507,136.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.5293.5293.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share58.3869.1476.31
LTM Dividend per Share56.4356.4356.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share58.3869.1476.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend114.80125.57132.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate4.77%5.77%6.77%
Fair Value$7,821.53$24,693.89$28,346.43
Upside / Downside172.48%760.26%887.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,420.0014,194.6015,013.9115,880.5216,797.1417,766.6718,299.67
Payout Ratio39.32%49.46%59.59%69.73%79.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,277.007,020.308,947.2611,073.2913,414.9315,990.0016,927.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate4.77%5.77%6.77%
Year 1 PV (M)6,541.196,603.626,666.05
Year 2 PV (M)7,767.707,916.688,067.08
Year 3 PV (M)8,957.359,216.299,480.17
Year 4 PV (M)10,110.9710,502.5410,905.39
Year 5 PV (M)11,229.3311,775.5512,342.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)359,155.52376,625.70394,769.20
Equity Value (M)403,762.05422,640.39442,230.72
Shares Outstanding (M)93.5293.5293.52
Fair Value$4,317.60$4,519.47$4,728.96
Upside / Downside50.41%57.45%64.74%

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