Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ajinomoto Co., Inc. (2802.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,181.16 - $20,812.04$8,766.45
Multi-Stage$2,321.50 - $2,536.73$2,427.16
Blended Fair Value$5,596.80
Current Price$3,909.00
Upside43.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS17.39%12.69%52.1651.1842.1536.3523.3623.4024.6022.7422.9821.30
YoY Growth--1.90%21.42%15.98%55.61%-0.17%-4.88%8.15%-1.03%7.88%34.81%
Dividend Yield--1.33%1.78%1.47%2.20%1.62%2.61%2.63%2.17%1.89%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78,522.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39,428.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)39,094.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,704.409,815.255,889.15
Cash Retained (M)39,094.0039,094.0039,094.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,704.40-9,815.25-5,889.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)23,389.6029,278.7533,204.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)750.34750.34750.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share31.1739.0244.25
LTM Dividend per Share52.5552.5552.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share31.1739.0244.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend83.7291.5796.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,181.16$8,766.45$20,812.04
Upside / Downside6.96%124.26%432.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78,522.0083,625.9389,061.6294,850.62101,015.91107,581.94110,809.40
Payout Ratio50.21%58.17%66.13%74.09%82.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39,428.0048,645.3258,894.3270,270.1582,876.0196,823.75102,498.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44,779.7445,204.1945,628.64
Year 2 PV (M)49,906.1850,856.7551,816.29
Year 3 PV (M)54,814.1056,387.6157,990.96
Year 4 PV (M)59,510.1061,798.6964,152.67
Year 5 PV (M)64,000.6267,091.8770,301.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,468,898.701,539,847.061,613,510.78
Equity Value (M)1,741,909.431,821,186.181,903,400.77
Shares Outstanding (M)750.34750.34750.34
Fair Value$2,321.50$2,427.16$2,536.73
Upside / Downside-40.61%-37.91%-35.11%

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