Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Evergreen Aviation Technologies Corporation (2645.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.43 - $68.68$56.39
Multi-Stage$96.36 - $105.77$100.98
Blended Fair Value$78.68
Current Price$162.00
Upside-51.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS11.47%0.00%4.493.991.882.825.222.610.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--12.50%112.34%-33.33%-45.96%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.58%3.61%1.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,981.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,685.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)396.30247.68148.61
Cash Retained (M)295.91295.91295.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-396.30-247.68-148.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)-100.3948.22147.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)375.32375.32375.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.270.130.39
LTM Dividend per Share4.494.494.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.270.130.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.224.624.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$45.43$56.39$68.68
Upside / Downside-71.96%-65.19%-57.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,981.481,961.661,942.051,922.631,903.401,884.371,940.90
Payout Ratio85.07%86.05%87.04%88.03%89.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,685.571,688.071,690.351,692.421,694.281,695.931,795.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,560.091,576.011,591.93
Year 2 PV (M)1,443.761,473.381,503.29
Year 3 PV (M)1,335.941,377.251,419.41
Year 4 PV (M)1,236.011,287.241,340.04
Year 5 PV (M)1,143.421,202.961,264.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,448.4130,981.8632,578.53
Equity Value (M)36,167.6337,898.7039,698.16
Shares Outstanding (M)375.32375.32375.32
Fair Value$96.36$100.98$105.77
Upside / Downside-40.52%-37.67%-34.71%

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