Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$142.91 - $222.07$179.51
Multi-Stage$322.86 - $356.07$339.13
Blended Fair Value$259.32
Current Price$72.57
Upside257.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.260.000.000.300.070.050.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%309.53%45.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,801.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)449.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,351.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,160.38725.23435.14
Cash Retained (M)5,351.895,351.895,351.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,160.38-725.23-435.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,191.514,626.654,916.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)383.11383.11383.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.9412.0812.83
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.9412.0812.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.1213.2514.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$142.91$179.51$222.07
Upside / Downside96.92%147.36%206.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,801.885,743.865,686.425,629.565,573.265,517.535,683.05
Payout Ratio7.76%24.20%40.65%57.10%73.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)449.991,390.292,311.733,214.614,099.204,965.775,256.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,294.581,307.791,321.00
Year 2 PV (M)2,004.402,045.522,087.05
Year 3 PV (M)2,595.382,675.642,757.54
Year 4 PV (M)3,081.733,209.463,341.11
Year 5 PV (M)3,476.223,657.233,845.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)111,236.58117,028.93123,060.10
Equity Value (M)123,688.89129,924.56136,412.51
Shares Outstanding (M)383.11383.11383.11
Fair Value$322.86$339.13$356.07
Upside / Downside344.89%367.32%390.66%

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