Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Calbee, Inc. (2229.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,168.99 - $8,404.64$4,845.88
Multi-Stage$3,803.56 - $4,172.30$3,984.45
Blended Fair Value$4,415.17
Current Price$2,745.00
Upside60.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.74%9.08%56.0752.0653.8153.5653.5751.4344.9944.9637.4329.92
YoY Growth--7.70%-3.26%0.46%-0.01%4.17%14.30%0.07%20.10%25.12%27.27%
Dividend Yield--2.04%1.68%1.97%1.96%2.09%1.72%1.53%1.08%0.85%0.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,347.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,257.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,090.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,469.402,168.381,301.03
Cash Retained (M)10,090.0010,090.0010,090.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,469.40-2,168.38-1,301.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,620.607,921.638,788.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.94124.94124.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share52.9963.4070.35
LTM Dividend per Share58.0958.0958.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share52.9963.4070.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend111.08121.49128.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Fair Value$3,168.99$4,845.88$8,404.64
Upside / Downside15.45%76.53%206.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,347.0017,990.5218,657.9219,350.0820,067.9120,812.3721,436.74
Payout Ratio41.83%51.47%61.10%70.73%80.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,257.009,259.2711,400.1013,687.0316,127.9518,731.1319,828.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Year 1 PV (M)8,625.728,709.708,793.68
Year 2 PV (M)9,893.4210,087.0010,282.46
Year 3 PV (M)11,065.3611,391.7211,724.44
Year 4 PV (M)12,146.5912,626.5913,120.68
Year 5 PV (M)13,141.9013,794.2414,472.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)420,333.72441,198.28462,883.29
Equity Value (M)475,206.71497,807.54521,276.78
Shares Outstanding (M)124.94124.94124.94
Fair Value$3,803.56$3,984.45$4,172.30
Upside / Downside38.56%45.15%52.00%

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