Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sands China Ltd. (1928.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.27 - $1.74$1.51
Multi-Stage$2.14 - $2.36$2.25
Blended Fair Value$1.88
Current Price$2.08
Upside-9.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.130.250.250.260.260.26
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-49.78%-0.05%-0.73%-0.14%-0.05%-20.37%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.89%4.75%5.79%5.06%5.89%7.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,975.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)260.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,715.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)395.00246.88148.13
Cash Retained (M)1,715.001,715.001,715.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-395.00-246.88-148.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,320.001,468.131,566.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,093.388,093.388,093.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate-4.90%-3.90%-2.90%
Fair Value$1.27$1.51$1.74
Upside / Downside-38.91%-27.52%-16.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,975.001,897.921,823.851,752.671,684.271,618.541,667.09
Payout Ratio13.16%28.53%43.90%59.27%74.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)260.00541.51800.651,038.731,257.021,456.681,542.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate-4.90%-3.90%-2.90%
Year 1 PV (M)488.45493.59498.72
Year 2 PV (M)651.44665.21679.13
Year 3 PV (M)762.35786.65811.46
Year 4 PV (M)832.16867.72904.40
Year 5 PV (M)869.85916.56965.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,725.9314,462.9515,231.29
Equity Value (M)17,330.1818,192.6719,090.26
Shares Outstanding (M)8,093.388,093.388,093.38
Fair Value$2.14$2.25$2.36
Upside / Downside2.95%8.07%13.40%

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