Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Limited (1818.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.20 - $132.17$56.58
Multi-Stage$20.60 - $22.53$21.54
Blended Fair Value$39.06
Current Price$18.61
Upside109.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.33%-2.16%0.100.170.080.130.130.060.100.090.070.06
YoY Growth---38.70%107.51%-35.41%-5.58%141.07%-42.55%1.81%37.96%6.64%-50.05%
Dividend Yield--1.00%1.92%1.06%2.32%1.71%0.72%1.38%1.84%1.15%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,654.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)694.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,959.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)730.81456.76274.05
Cash Retained (M)2,959.112,959.112,959.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-730.81-456.76-274.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,228.292,502.352,685.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,269.653,269.653,269.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.981.03
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.20$56.58$132.17
Upside / Downside78.41%204.01%610.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,654.063,891.584,144.534,413.924,700.835,006.385,156.57
Payout Ratio19.02%33.22%47.41%61.61%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)694.961,292.591,964.972,719.313,563.404,505.744,769.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,181.871,193.081,204.28
Year 2 PV (M)1,642.781,674.071,705.65
Year 3 PV (M)2,078.702,138.372,199.17
Year 4 PV (M)2,490.632,586.412,684.93
Year 5 PV (M)2,879.523,018.613,163.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,075.7459,832.5262,694.80
Equity Value (M)67,349.2370,443.0473,651.84
Shares Outstanding (M)3,269.653,269.653,269.65
Fair Value$20.60$21.54$22.53
Upside / Downside10.68%15.77%21.04%

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