Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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3SBio Inc. (1530.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.71 - $310.18$100.03
Multi-Stage$32.23 - $35.26$33.72
Blended Fair Value$66.87
Current Price$21.57
Upside210.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS102.41%-1.70%0.230.090.170.000.000.010.060.000.000.00
YoY Growth--146.83%-46.09%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-89.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.96%1.35%2.32%0.00%0.00%0.07%0.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,017.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)779.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,237.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)803.44502.15301.29
Cash Retained (M)3,237.223,237.223,237.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-803.44-502.15-301.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,433.782,735.072,935.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,454.552,454.552,454.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.991.111.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.991.111.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.311.431.51
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$54.71$100.03$310.18
Upside / Downside153.65%363.75%1,338.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,017.194,278.304,556.394,852.565,167.975,503.895,669.01
Payout Ratio19.42%33.53%47.65%61.77%75.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)779.971,434.632,171.102,997.253,921.624,953.505,243.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,315.591,328.061,340.53
Year 2 PV (M)1,825.741,860.521,895.62
Year 3 PV (M)2,311.332,377.682,445.29
Year 4 PV (M)2,773.232,879.882,989.57
Year 5 PV (M)3,212.273,367.423,528.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,676.9470,945.7674,339.68
Equity Value (M)79,115.0982,759.3286,539.21
Shares Outstanding (M)2,454.552,454.552,454.55
Fair Value$32.23$33.72$35.26
Upside / Downside49.43%56.31%63.45%

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