Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Al Masane Al Kobra Mining Company (1322.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Other Precious MetalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$214.96 - $564.00$528.55
Multi-Stage$82.40 - $90.06$86.16
Blended Fair Value$307.35
Current Price$73.50
Upside318.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.550.731.900.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--111.68%-61.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.77%1.32%3.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)250.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)184.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.1731.3618.81
Cash Retained (M)66.7066.7066.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.17-31.36-18.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.5335.3547.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)88.4688.4688.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.400.54
LTM Dividend per Share2.082.082.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.400.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.272.482.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$214.96$528.55$564.00
Upside / Downside192.47%619.11%667.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)250.86267.17284.53303.03322.72343.70354.01
Payout Ratio73.41%76.73%80.05%83.36%86.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)184.16204.99227.76252.61279.74309.33327.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)190.47192.27194.08
Year 2 PV (M)196.63200.38204.16
Year 3 PV (M)202.64208.46214.39
Year 4 PV (M)208.51216.53224.77
Year 5 PV (M)214.23224.57235.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,276.096,579.236,893.97
Equity Value (M)7,288.577,621.447,966.68
Shares Outstanding (M)88.4688.4688.46
Fair Value$82.40$86.16$90.06
Upside / Downside12.10%17.22%22.53%

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