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Definitive Analysis

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CHOSUN WELDING POHANG Co., Ltd (120030.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74,860.39 - $103,432.43$89,233.88
Multi-Stage$143,199.04 - $158,118.39$150,507.78
Blended Fair Value$119,870.83
Current Price$105,400.00
Upside13.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.14%0.00%527.951,598.091,605.701,653.371,681.801,730.861,836.981,927.390.000.00
YoY Growth---66.96%-0.47%-2.88%-1.69%-2.83%-5.78%-4.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.56%1.64%1.61%1.45%1.24%2.24%2.25%2.58%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,860.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)475.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,385.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,572.031,607.52964.51
Cash Retained (M)12,385.1312,385.1312,385.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,572.03-1,607.52-964.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,813.0910,777.6111,420.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.950.950.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share10,361.2311,379.6212,058.54
LTM Dividend per Share501.58501.58501.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share10,361.2311,379.6212,058.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend10,862.8111,881.2012,560.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate-5.26%-4.26%-3.26%
Fair Value$74,860.39$89,233.88$103,432.43
Upside / Downside-28.97%-15.34%-1.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,860.1712,312.0611,787.3011,284.9210,803.9410,343.4710,653.77
Payout Ratio3.69%20.96%38.22%55.48%72.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)475.042,580.014,504.686,260.607,858.669,309.129,854.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate-5.26%-4.26%-3.26%
Year 1 PV (M)2,353.372,378.212,403.05
Year 2 PV (M)3,748.033,827.573,907.95
Year 3 PV (M)4,751.444,903.505,058.76
Year 4 PV (M)5,440.365,673.725,914.52
Year 5 PV (M)5,878.386,195.256,525.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)113,451.87119,567.28125,943.62
Equity Value (M)135,623.46142,545.54149,753.53
Shares Outstanding (M)0.950.950.95
Fair Value$143,199.04$150,507.78$158,118.39
Upside / Downside35.86%42.80%50.02%

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