Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Towngas Smart Energy Company Limited (1083.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76.13 - $148.00$138.70
Multi-Stage$22.63 - $24.80$23.69
Blended Fair Value$81.20
Current Price$3.94
Upside1,960.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.90%12.26%0.050.040.030.020.020.020.030.010.020.03
YoY Growth--11.74%25.03%78.50%-5.61%-3.24%-30.48%118.82%-21.54%-35.48%81.13%
Dividend Yield--1.41%1.24%0.82%0.27%0.55%0.37%0.49%0.21%0.41%0.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,823.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)323.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,499.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)564.74352.96211.78
Cash Retained (M)2,499.912,499.912,499.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-564.74-352.96-211.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,935.172,146.952,288.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,794.283,794.283,794.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$76.13$138.70$148.00
Upside / Downside1,832.20%3,420.33%3,656.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,823.723,007.263,202.733,410.913,632.623,868.743,984.80
Payout Ratio11.47%27.17%42.88%58.59%74.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)323.81817.191,373.351,998.352,698.803,481.873,685.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)761.36768.58775.79
Year 2 PV (M)1,192.101,214.811,237.73
Year 3 PV (M)1,616.121,662.511,709.78
Year 4 PV (M)2,033.482,111.682,192.12
Year 5 PV (M)2,444.262,562.322,684.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)77,818.9281,577.6085,480.14
Equity Value (M)85,866.2489,897.5094,080.46
Shares Outstanding (M)3,794.283,794.283,794.28
Fair Value$22.63$23.69$24.80
Upside / Downside474.38%501.34%529.32%

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