Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Safilo Group S.p.A. (0NJ5.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.76 - $1.08$0.92
Multi-Stage$1.09 - $1.20$1.15
Blended Fair Value$1.03
Current Price$0.90
Upside14.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--38.04%-36.91%-21.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.15%0.14%0.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.666.043.62
Cash Retained (M)47.5547.5547.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.66-6.04-3.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.8941.5143.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)412.43412.43412.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate10.07%10.07%10.07%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.76$0.92$1.08
Upside / Downside-15.76%1.48%19.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48.3247.8347.3546.8846.4145.9547.33
Payout Ratio1.58%19.26%36.95%54.63%72.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.769.2117.5025.6133.5641.3543.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.07%10.07%10.07%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)8.298.378.45
Year 2 PV (M)14.1514.4414.73
Year 3 PV (M)18.6319.2019.79
Year 4 PV (M)21.9522.8623.80
Year 5 PV (M)24.3225.5926.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)364.02382.98402.71
Equity Value (M)451.36473.44496.40
Shares Outstanding (M)412.43412.43412.43
Fair Value$1.09$1.15$1.20
Upside / Downside21.20%27.12%33.29%

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