Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Capital GoodsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.64 - $39.90$30.75
Multi-Stage$38.77 - $42.61$40.65
Blended Fair Value$35.70
Current Price$27.10
Upside31.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.22%6.33%0.550.600.600.600.300.800.750.600.550.45
YoY Growth---8.30%-0.04%0.00%100.00%-62.50%6.79%25.00%9.09%22.22%50.98%
Dividend Yield--2.04%2.51%2.13%1.83%0.79%3.90%2.54%2.09%2.51%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.956.844.10
Cash Retained (M)40.7440.7440.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.95-6.84-4.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.7933.9036.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.0028.0028.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.061.211.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.061.211.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.561.711.81
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate0.37%1.37%2.37%
Fair Value$23.64$30.75$39.90
Upside / Downside-12.76%13.46%47.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.7355.4856.2457.0157.8058.5960.35
Payout Ratio25.56%38.45%51.34%64.23%77.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.9921.3328.8736.6244.5752.7355.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate0.37%1.37%2.37%
Year 1 PV (M)19.7419.9320.13
Year 2 PV (M)24.7225.2125.71
Year 3 PV (M)29.0029.8830.77
Year 4 PV (M)32.6633.9935.35
Year 5 PV (M)35.7637.5839.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)943.59991.541,041.42
Equity Value (M)1,085.471,138.131,192.85
Shares Outstanding (M)28.0028.0028.00
Fair Value$38.77$40.65$42.61
Upside / Downside43.07%50.01%57.22%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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