Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. (0EXG.IL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.16 - $194.96$182.71
Multi-Stage$30.64 - $33.51$32.05
Blended Fair Value$107.38
Current Price$21.48
Upside399.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.00%7.49%0.680.580.790.290.350.330.640.690.290.65
YoY Growth--18.18%-26.52%172.93%-16.52%6.15%-49.07%-7.72%136.23%-54.74%95.00%
Dividend Yield--3.49%3.14%3.64%1.33%2.41%1.98%4.85%4.68%1.75%4.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)615.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)388.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)227.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)123.0076.8846.13
Cash Retained (M)227.00227.00227.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-123.00-76.88-46.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.00150.13180.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)627.34627.34627.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.240.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.240.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$98.16$182.71$194.96
Upside / Downside357.00%750.60%807.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)615.00654.98697.55742.89791.18842.60867.88
Payout Ratio63.09%68.47%73.85%79.24%84.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)388.00448.47515.16588.63669.48758.34802.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)417.76421.72425.68
Year 2 PV (M)447.03455.54464.14
Year 3 PV (M)475.80489.46503.38
Year 4 PV (M)504.10523.48543.42
Year 5 PV (M)531.91557.60584.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,844.3417,657.9218,502.65
Equity Value (M)19,220.9420,105.7421,023.55
Shares Outstanding (M)627.34627.34627.34
Fair Value$30.64$32.05$33.51
Upside / Downside42.64%49.21%56.02%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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