Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lenovo Group Limited (0992.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.78 - $3.25$2.39
Multi-Stage$1.53 - $1.68$1.60
Blended Fair Value$1.99
Current Price$1.48
Upside34.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.95%6.41%0.040.040.040.040.030.030.030.030.030.03
YoY Growth--4.30%0.77%20.88%10.26%-0.12%7.53%6.20%1.02%-0.65%16.04%
Dividend Yield--3.72%3.04%4.09%3.76%2.77%5.77%3.74%5.16%4.38%4.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,628.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)134.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,493.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)325.65203.53122.12
Cash Retained (M)1,493.771,493.771,493.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-325.65-203.53-122.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,168.121,290.241,371.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,620.2213,620.2213,620.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate10.03%10.03%10.03%
Growth Rate4.41%5.41%6.41%
Fair Value$1.78$2.39$3.25
Upside / Downside20.02%61.20%119.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,628.251,716.291,809.091,906.902,010.012,118.692,182.25
Payout Ratio8.26%24.61%40.96%57.30%73.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)134.48422.33740.921,092.731,480.411,906.822,018.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.03%10.03%10.03%
Growth Rate4.41%5.41%6.41%
Year 1 PV (M)380.20383.84387.48
Year 2 PV (M)600.46612.02623.68
Year 3 PV (M)797.22820.35843.92
Year 4 PV (M)972.311,010.101,048.98
Year 5 PV (M)1,127.431,182.461,239.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,981.3017,810.2618,671.28
Equity Value (M)20,858.9221,819.0222,814.97
Shares Outstanding (M)13,620.2213,620.2213,620.22
Fair Value$1.53$1.60$1.68
Upside / Downside3.48%8.24%13.18%

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