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Definitive Analysis

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Modetour Network Inc. (080160.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Personal Products & ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9,249.80 - $14,256.85$11,577.82
Multi-Stage$20,338.11 - $22,407.40$21,352.34
Blended Fair Value$16,465.08
Current Price$12,190.00
Upside35.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-7.86%0.00%254.43412.7052.2043.60166.21383.050.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---38.35%690.60%19.72%-73.77%-56.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.39%2.55%0.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,450.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,328.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,122.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,490.172,181.361,308.81
Cash Retained (M)13,122.7913,122.7913,122.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,490.17-2,181.36-1,308.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,632.6210,941.4311,813.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.3417.3417.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share555.39630.85681.16
LTM Dividend per Share249.54249.54249.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share555.39630.85681.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend804.93880.39930.70
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9,249.80$11,577.82$14,256.85
Upside / Downside-24.12%-5.02%16.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,450.8617,276.3517,103.5916,932.5516,763.2316,595.6017,093.46
Payout Ratio24.80%37.84%50.88%63.92%76.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,328.076,537.588,702.4610,823.3912,901.0314,936.0415,811.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6,074.966,136.956,198.94
Year 2 PV (M)7,514.427,668.567,824.26
Year 3 PV (M)8,684.478,953.049,227.10
Year 4 PV (M)9,619.0310,017.6910,428.62
Year 5 PV (M)10,348.3010,887.1611,448.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)310,502.04326,670.60343,505.81
Equity Value (M)352,743.21370,334.00388,632.96
Shares Outstanding (M)17.3417.3417.34
Fair Value$20,338.11$21,352.34$22,407.40
Upside / Downside66.84%75.16%83.82%

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