Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dongbang Transport Logistics Co., Ltd. (004140.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,789.67 - $14,555.91$8,705.66
Multi-Stage$4,527.44 - $4,957.38$4,738.45
Blended Fair Value$6,722.05
Current Price$2,795.00
Upside140.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.30%-3.99%20.030.000.000.001.806.2312.839.268.3812.76
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-71.19%-51.43%38.47%10.57%-34.35%-57.58%
Dividend Yield--0.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.37%0.73%0.58%0.44%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,430.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)955.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,474.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,486.151,553.84932.31
Cash Retained (M)11,474.8511,474.8511,474.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,486.15-1,553.84-932.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,988.709,921.0110,542.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)47.7347.7347.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share188.32207.85220.87
LTM Dividend per Share20.0320.0320.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share188.32207.85220.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend208.35227.88240.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Fair Value$5,789.67$8,705.66$14,555.91
Upside / Downside107.14%211.47%420.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,430.7513,127.6013,863.5214,640.6915,461.4216,328.1716,818.01
Payout Ratio7.69%24.15%40.61%57.08%73.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)955.903,170.555,630.518,356.3011,370.0114,695.3515,556.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)2,897.972,925.672,953.37
Year 2 PV (M)4,703.964,794.334,885.56
Year 3 PV (M)6,381.006,565.766,754.05
Year 4 PV (M)7,935.858,243.698,560.40
Year 5 PV (M)9,374.999,831.7510,306.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)184,806.82193,810.82203,162.39
Equity Value (M)216,100.60226,172.02236,621.91
Shares Outstanding (M)47.7347.7347.73
Fair Value$4,527.44$4,738.45$4,957.38
Upside / Downside61.98%69.53%77.37%

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