Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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JinFu Technology Co., Ltd. (003018.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.93 - $91.24$85.50
Multi-Stage$14.29 - $15.64$14.95
Blended Fair Value$50.23
Current Price$11.66
Upside330.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS66.92%0.00%0.210.080.070.380.010.020.020.030.030.00
YoY Growth--154.21%14.61%-81.58%6,907.99%-65.55%-6.52%-39.58%-12.03%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.00%0.95%0.74%3.67%0.04%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)118.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.7314.838.90
Cash Retained (M)37.8337.8337.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.73-14.83-8.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.1123.0028.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)257.68257.68257.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.10%6.10%7.10%
Fair Value$31.93$85.50$91.24
Upside / Downside173.83%633.26%682.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)118.65125.89133.58141.73150.38159.56164.35
Payout Ratio68.11%72.49%76.87%81.24%85.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.8191.26102.68115.15128.76143.61152.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.10%6.10%7.10%
Year 1 PV (M)85.0385.8486.65
Year 2 PV (M)89.1390.8492.56
Year 3 PV (M)93.1495.8298.55
Year 4 PV (M)97.03100.78104.63
Year 5 PV (M)100.83105.72110.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,217.953,373.973,535.99
Equity Value (M)3,683.113,852.964,029.18
Shares Outstanding (M)257.68257.68257.68
Fair Value$14.29$14.95$15.64
Upside / Downside22.58%28.24%34.10%

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