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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Rijiu Optoelectronics Jointstock Co., Ltd (003015.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.90 - $67.13$62.91
Multi-Stage$10.11 - $11.05$10.57
Blended Fair Value$36.74
Current Price$17.00
Upside116.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.08%22.37%0.110.220.230.190.050.050.130.030.030.02
YoY Growth---50.23%-1.77%20.20%307.90%-12.06%-58.16%401.30%0.23%28.42%32.27%
Dividend Yield--0.74%1.61%2.35%1.91%0.32%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)88.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.6111.016.60
Cash Retained (M)32.1332.1332.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.61-11.01-6.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.5221.1325.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)260.85260.85260.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.90$62.91$67.13
Upside / Downside70.00%270.09%294.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)88.0693.7899.88106.37113.28120.64124.26
Payout Ratio63.51%68.81%74.11%79.40%84.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.9264.5374.0184.4695.95108.58114.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)60.0360.6061.17
Year 2 PV (M)64.0565.2766.50
Year 3 PV (M)68.0069.9571.94
Year 4 PV (M)71.8674.6277.47
Year 5 PV (M)75.6579.3083.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,297.372,408.332,523.54
Equity Value (M)2,636.952,758.072,883.71
Shares Outstanding (M)260.85260.85260.85
Fair Value$10.11$10.57$11.05
Upside / Downside-40.54%-37.80%-34.97%

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