Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Sentury Tire Co., Ltd. (002984.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$111.31 - $272.16$255.05
Multi-Stage$39.64 - $43.39$41.48
Blended Fair Value$148.27
Current Price$19.24
Upside670.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.99%0.00%0.500.010.110.130.060.110.120.110.070.05
YoY Growth--4,804.02%-90.97%-15.50%106.33%-39.77%-11.29%10.09%64.30%21.94%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.06%0.04%0.50%0.62%0.27%0.55%0.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,475.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)540.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)935.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)295.12184.45110.67
Cash Retained (M)935.07935.07935.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-295.12-184.45-110.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)639.95750.62824.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,078.271,078.271,078.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.700.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.700.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.091.201.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$111.31$255.05$272.16
Upside / Downside478.55%1,225.62%1,314.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,475.591,571.501,673.651,782.431,898.292,021.682,082.33
Payout Ratio36.63%47.30%57.98%68.65%79.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)540.52743.39970.361,223.681,505.841,819.511,926.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)691.22697.77704.33
Year 2 PV (M)838.94854.92871.05
Year 3 PV (M)983.711,011.951,040.73
Year 4 PV (M)1,125.591,168.871,213.40
Year 5 PV (M)1,264.611,325.691,389.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,842.6639,670.4741,568.24
Equity Value (M)42,746.7344,729.6846,786.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,078.271,078.271,078.27
Fair Value$39.64$41.48$43.39
Upside / Downside106.05%115.61%125.52%

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