Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Anning Iron and Titanium Co.,Ltd. (002978.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.45 - $351.78$239.65
Multi-Stage$42.78 - $46.80$44.75
Blended Fair Value$142.20
Current Price$32.36
Upside339.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS127.76%32.55%0.910.880.971.550.220.010.640.170.070.18
YoY Growth--2.38%-9.09%-37.14%600.00%1,396.68%-97.68%280.61%132.90%-60.87%238.99%
Dividend Yield--2.77%2.69%2.61%4.18%0.50%0.04%1.61%0.42%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)801.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)256.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)545.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)160.38100.2460.14
Cash Retained (M)545.39545.39545.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-160.38-100.24-60.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)385.01445.16485.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)453.35453.35453.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.850.981.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.850.981.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.421.551.64
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$88.45$239.65$351.78
Upside / Downside173.34%640.58%987.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)801.90854.02909.53968.651,031.621,098.671,131.63
Payout Ratio31.99%43.59%55.19%66.79%78.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)256.50372.27501.99647.01808.76988.801,046.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)344.04347.30350.56
Year 2 PV (M)428.76436.92445.17
Year 3 PV (M)510.72525.38540.32
Year 4 PV (M)590.00612.69636.02
Year 5 PV (M)666.65698.85732.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,851.8517,665.8018,510.90
Equity Value (M)19,392.0220,286.9521,215.26
Shares Outstanding (M)453.35453.35453.35
Fair Value$42.78$44.75$46.80
Upside / Downside32.19%38.29%44.61%

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