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Definitive Analysis

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China Great Wall Securities Co.,Ltd. (002939.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.73 - $118.84$111.37
Multi-Stage$15.78 - $17.26$16.51
Blended Fair Value$63.94
Current Price$11.61
Upside450.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.17%45.13%0.410.310.350.290.240.250.080.130.260.03
YoY Growth--31.65%-11.00%23.49%19.97%-6.52%210.16%-34.61%-52.04%706.95%225.40%
Dividend Yield--5.12%4.15%4.25%3.00%2.18%2.10%0.53%1.38%2.88%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,412.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)953.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,458.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)482.46301.54180.92
Cash Retained (M)1,458.371,458.371,458.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-482.46-301.54-180.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)975.911,156.831,277.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,036.894,036.894,036.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.290.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.290.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.73$111.37$118.84
Upside / Downside216.32%859.27%923.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,412.312,569.102,736.102,913.943,103.353,305.073,404.22
Payout Ratio39.54%49.64%59.73%69.82%79.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)953.941,275.191,634.182,034.452,479.852,974.563,148.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,181.981,193.181,204.39
Year 2 PV (M)1,404.001,430.741,457.74
Year 3 PV (M)1,620.121,666.631,714.02
Year 4 PV (M)1,830.461,900.861,973.26
Year 5 PV (M)2,035.122,133.422,235.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,621.9458,308.5061,097.88
Equity Value (M)63,693.6366,633.3369,682.77
Shares Outstanding (M)4,036.894,036.894,036.89
Fair Value$15.78$16.51$17.26
Upside / Downside35.90%42.17%48.68%

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