Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Sinovatio Technology Co., Ltd. (002912.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.68 - $3.63$3.16
Multi-Stage$6.38 - $7.04$6.70
Blended Fair Value$4.93
Current Price$28.43
Upside-82.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.77%13.14%0.300.000.000.410.410.410.290.230.290.11
YoY Growth--47,378.98%73.01%-99.91%-1.20%2.18%38.67%25.06%-20.00%177.78%20.00%
Dividend Yield--1.12%0.00%0.00%1.57%0.85%0.43%0.40%0.48%1.72%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)96.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.2512.037.22
Cash Retained (M)61.9561.9561.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.25-12.03-7.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.7049.9254.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)171.20171.20171.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate-7.77%-6.77%-5.77%
Fair Value$2.68$3.16$3.63
Upside / Downside-90.59%-88.87%-87.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)96.2589.7483.6778.0172.7367.8169.85
Payout Ratio35.64%46.51%57.38%68.25%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.3041.7448.0153.2457.5561.0364.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate-7.77%-6.77%-5.77%
Year 1 PV (M)38.3338.7439.16
Year 2 PV (M)40.4841.3642.26
Year 3 PV (M)41.2242.5843.96
Year 4 PV (M)40.9242.7244.58
Year 5 PV (M)39.8442.0544.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)890.74940.08991.59
Equity Value (M)1,091.531,147.541,205.90
Shares Outstanding (M)171.20171.20171.20
Fair Value$6.38$6.70$7.04
Upside / Downside-77.57%-76.42%-75.22%

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