Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Double Medical Technology Inc. (002901.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.97 - $88.06$49.45
Multi-Stage$22.03 - $24.05$23.02
Blended Fair Value$36.23
Current Price$56.00
Upside-35.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.61%38.02%0.290.020.510.790.590.510.390.230.140.18
YoY Growth--1,151.91%-95.50%-35.40%34.30%16.67%29.26%66.60%63.53%-20.11%1,461.68%
Dividend Yield--0.84%0.07%1.41%1.86%1.18%0.75%1.14%0.63%0.86%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)541.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)212.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)328.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.3167.7040.62
Cash Retained (M)328.97328.97328.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.31-67.70-40.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)220.66261.28288.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)409.01409.01409.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.640.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.640.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.061.161.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.97$49.45$88.06
Upside / Downside-42.91%-11.70%57.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)541.57576.78614.27654.19696.72742.00764.26
Payout Ratio39.26%49.41%59.55%69.70%79.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)212.60284.96365.82455.99556.34667.80706.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)258.98261.44263.89
Year 2 PV (M)302.17307.93313.74
Year 3 PV (M)342.33352.15362.17
Year 4 PV (M)379.59394.19409.21
Year 5 PV (M)414.12434.12454.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,312.307,665.488,032.19
Equity Value (M)9,009.499,415.329,836.08
Shares Outstanding (M)409.01409.01409.01
Fair Value$22.03$23.02$24.05
Upside / Downside-60.67%-58.89%-57.06%

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