Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

MeiG Smart Technology Co., Ltd (002881.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.04 - $43.31$23.57
Multi-Stage$10.09 - $11.03$10.55
Blended Fair Value$17.06
Current Price$48.99
Upside-65.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.81%33.60%0.100.120.140.040.020.030.050.010.010.01
YoY Growth---17.89%-14.50%257.23%106.41%-31.51%-44.88%428.32%30.26%-8.71%47.59%
Dividend Yield--0.21%0.50%0.43%0.15%0.15%0.18%0.29%0.07%0.13%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)157.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)42.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)115.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.4819.6711.80
Cash Retained (M)115.23115.23115.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.48-19.67-11.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.7695.56103.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)260.90260.90260.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.04$23.57$43.31
Upside / Downside-69.30%-51.89%-11.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)157.39167.62178.51190.11202.47215.63222.10
Payout Ratio26.78%39.43%52.07%64.71%77.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)42.1566.0892.95123.03156.62194.07205.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)60.1260.6961.26
Year 2 PV (M)76.9378.4079.88
Year 3 PV (M)92.6495.3098.01
Year 4 PV (M)107.30111.43115.67
Year 5 PV (M)120.96126.80132.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,175.742,280.832,389.94
Equity Value (M)2,633.702,753.452,877.63
Shares Outstanding (M)260.90260.90260.90
Fair Value$10.09$10.55$11.03
Upside / Downside-79.39%-78.46%-77.49%

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