Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co., Ltd. (002824.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.54 - $85.67$29.97
Multi-Stage$8.81 - $9.63$9.21
Blended Fair Value$19.59
Current Price$18.83
Upside4.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.25%12.02%0.260.270.200.070.060.060.060.070.080.08
YoY Growth---2.90%35.53%172.28%31.37%-10.75%2.90%-19.07%-9.74%-2.59%1.11%
Dividend Yield--1.59%1.64%0.84%0.29%0.42%0.54%0.52%0.62%0.41%0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)105.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.0315.649.39
Cash Retained (M)105.19105.19105.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.03-15.64-9.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.1689.5595.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)290.51290.51290.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.54$29.97$85.67
Upside / Downside-17.47%59.15%354.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.15133.29141.95151.18161.00171.47176.61
Payout Ratio15.95%30.76%45.57%60.38%75.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.9641.0064.6991.28121.06154.32163.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)37.6638.0238.38
Year 2 PV (M)54.5855.6256.67
Year 3 PV (M)70.7672.7974.86
Year 4 PV (M)86.2089.5192.92
Year 5 PV (M)100.94105.81110.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,207.922,314.572,425.29
Equity Value (M)2,558.062,676.322,799.00
Shares Outstanding (M)290.51290.51290.51
Fair Value$8.81$9.21$9.63
Upside / Downside-53.24%-51.08%-48.83%

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