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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Jiuyuan Yinhai Software.Co.,Ltd (002777.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.32 - $3.57$2.90
Multi-Stage$3.31 - $3.62$3.46
Blended Fair Value$3.18
Current Price$18.99
Upside-83.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.58%1.83%0.130.100.160.120.110.110.110.100.100.15
YoY Growth--20.00%-35.00%33.33%5.00%4.00%0.00%7.84%0.00%-33.33%46.78%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.46%0.57%0.81%0.79%0.52%0.66%0.63%0.62%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.4512.157.29
Cash Retained (M)34.7534.7534.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.45-12.15-7.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.3022.6027.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)390.39390.39390.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Fair Value$2.32$2.90$3.57
Upside / Downside-87.76%-84.71%-81.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.2498.77100.33101.91103.52105.15108.31
Payout Ratio64.26%69.41%74.56%79.70%84.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62.4868.5574.8081.2387.8494.64100.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Year 1 PV (M)62.1662.7863.40
Year 2 PV (M)61.5062.7263.97
Year 3 PV (M)60.5562.3764.23
Year 4 PV (M)59.3761.7664.23
Year 5 PV (M)58.0060.9464.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)989.771,039.961,092.17
Equity Value (M)1,291.331,350.541,411.99
Shares Outstanding (M)390.39390.39390.39
Fair Value$3.31$3.46$3.62
Upside / Downside-82.58%-81.78%-80.95%

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