Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Guangdong Sunwill Precising Plastic Co.,Ltd (002676.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.47 - $19.40$18.18
Multi-Stage$4.92 - $5.39$5.15
Blended Fair Value$11.67
Current Price$9.67
Upside20.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.94%6.10%0.050.030.030.030.030.030.030.010.020.04
YoY Growth--93.48%-4.98%-8.67%-2.84%-1.57%5.86%258.54%-56.47%-47.81%30.53%
Dividend Yield--0.78%0.54%0.64%0.77%1.01%0.89%0.79%0.14%0.13%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.048.785.27
Cash Retained (M)28.4928.4928.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.04-8.78-5.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.4519.7223.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)719.63719.63719.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate5.09%5.09%5.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.47$18.18$19.40
Upside / Downside70.31%88.04%100.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.2174.7879.6484.8190.3296.2099.08
Payout Ratio59.42%65.53%71.65%77.77%83.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.7249.0057.0665.9675.7786.5891.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.09%5.09%5.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)46.1946.6347.07
Year 2 PV (M)50.7051.6752.64
Year 3 PV (M)55.2456.8358.44
Year 4 PV (M)59.8262.1264.49
Year 5 PV (M)64.4367.5470.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,263.073,420.673,584.31
Equity Value (M)3,539.453,705.463,877.73
Shares Outstanding (M)719.63719.63719.63
Fair Value$4.92$5.15$5.39
Upside / Downside-49.14%-46.75%-44.28%

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