Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ronglian Group Ltd. (002642.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.13 - $0.17$0.15
Multi-Stage$0.27 - $0.29$0.28
Blended Fair Value$0.21
Current Price$9.36
Upside-97.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.57%-1.96%0.020.030.020.010.020.040.060.020.030.06
YoY Growth---42.71%55.20%86.71%-39.15%-59.99%-37.34%224.61%-40.19%-47.01%214.85%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.39%0.19%0.15%0.33%0.57%0.83%0.14%0.13%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.813.001.80
Cash Retained (M)17.1317.1317.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.81-3.00-1.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.3314.1315.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)671.59671.59671.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.01%9.01%9.01%
Growth Rate-11.10%-10.10%-9.10%
Fair Value$0.13$0.15$0.17
Upside / Downside-98.65%-98.43%-98.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24.0321.6119.4317.4715.7014.1214.54
Payout Ratio28.71%40.97%53.22%65.48%77.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.908.8510.3411.4412.2112.7113.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.01%9.01%9.01%
Growth Rate-11.10%-10.10%-9.10%
Year 1 PV (M)8.038.128.21
Year 2 PV (M)8.518.708.90
Year 3 PV (M)8.548.839.13
Year 4 PV (M)8.278.659.04
Year 5 PV (M)7.818.258.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)137.54145.45153.72
Equity Value (M)178.68188.00197.71
Shares Outstanding (M)671.59671.59671.59
Fair Value$0.27$0.28$0.29
Upside / Downside-97.16%-97.01%-96.85%

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