Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kuang-Chi Technologies Co., Ltd. (002625.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.30 - $66.66$24.04
Multi-Stage$7.26 - $7.92$7.58
Blended Fair Value$15.81
Current Price$50.20
Upside-68.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS108.35%53.10%0.230.000.140.000.000.010.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%6,939.83%-60.70%-17.58%-8.51%3,203.99%-92.99%238.15%-74.87%
Dividend Yield--0.62%0.00%0.82%0.01%0.02%0.08%0.05%0.00%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)720.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)500.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)219.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)144.1590.0954.06
Cash Retained (M)219.92219.92219.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-144.15-90.09-54.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.77129.83165.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,150.232,150.232,150.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.30$24.04$66.66
Upside / Downside-75.49%-52.12%32.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)720.76767.61817.50870.64927.23987.501,017.13
Payout Ratio69.49%73.59%77.69%81.79%85.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)500.84564.88635.14712.14796.47888.75940.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)519.09524.01528.93
Year 2 PV (M)536.34546.56556.87
Year 3 PV (M)552.62568.48584.65
Year 4 PV (M)567.96589.80612.26
Year 5 PV (M)582.39610.52639.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,845.6613,466.1114,110.31
Equity Value (M)15,604.0616,305.4817,032.74
Shares Outstanding (M)2,150.232,150.232,150.23
Fair Value$7.26$7.58$7.92
Upside / Downside-85.54%-84.89%-84.22%

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