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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co., Ltd. (002605.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.18 - $236.56$221.69
Multi-Stage$32.95 - $36.05$34.47
Blended Fair Value$128.08
Current Price$27.81
Upside360.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.21%35.09%0.890.280.320.520.430.160.130.010.100.03
YoY Growth--224.18%-15.33%-37.70%19.88%173.88%23.19%1,606.80%-92.50%261.79%-36.79%
Dividend Yield--3.27%1.16%1.23%2.76%1.82%0.53%1.17%0.07%0.62%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)505.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)214.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)290.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)101.0263.1337.88
Cash Retained (M)290.16290.16290.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-101.02-63.13-37.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)189.15227.03252.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)424.61424.61424.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.530.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.530.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.951.041.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$83.18$221.69$236.56
Upside / Downside199.10%697.17%750.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)505.08537.91572.87610.11649.76692.00712.76
Payout Ratio42.55%52.04%61.53%71.02%80.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)214.92279.93352.49433.30523.13622.80659.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)259.87262.34264.80
Year 2 PV (M)303.79309.57315.41
Year 3 PV (M)346.67356.62366.77
Year 4 PV (M)388.55403.49418.86
Year 5 PV (M)429.44450.18471.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,263.7012,856.0413,471.05
Equity Value (M)13,992.0214,638.2515,308.61
Shares Outstanding (M)424.61424.61424.61
Fair Value$32.95$34.47$36.05
Upside / Downside18.49%23.96%29.64%

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