Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Shunho New Materials Technology Co.,Ltd. (002565.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.28 - $0.39$0.34
Multi-Stage$0.52 - $0.56$0.54
Blended Fair Value$0.44
Current Price$7.38
Upside-94.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.42%-8.53%0.030.010.010.010.020.030.170.060.030.04
YoY Growth--442.25%-22.08%-27.61%-37.94%-40.63%-84.29%161.16%86.97%-11.49%-46.41%
Dividend Yield--0.96%0.18%0.18%0.18%0.36%0.55%1.24%1.73%0.58%0.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.347.094.25
Cash Retained (M)12.3112.3112.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.34-7.09-4.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.975.228.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,064.651,064.651,064.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-4.45%-3.45%-2.45%
Fair Value$0.28$0.34$0.39
Upside / Downside-96.16%-95.44%-94.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.6954.7452.8551.0349.2747.5749.00
Payout Ratio78.29%80.63%82.97%85.31%87.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.3844.1343.8543.5443.1942.8145.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-4.45%-3.45%-2.45%
Year 1 PV (M)39.7440.1540.57
Year 2 PV (M)35.5536.3037.06
Year 3 PV (M)31.7832.7933.82
Year 4 PV (M)28.3929.5930.84
Year 5 PV (M)25.3426.6928.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)388.08408.82430.44
Equity Value (M)548.88574.35600.82
Shares Outstanding (M)1,064.651,064.651,064.65
Fair Value$0.52$0.54$0.56
Upside / Downside-93.01%-92.69%-92.35%

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