Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jinzi Ham Co.,Ltd. (002515.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.52 - $0.85$0.66
Multi-Stage$0.58 - $0.63$0.61
Blended Fair Value$0.64
Current Price$7.67
Upside-91.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%10.77%0.020.020.020.020.040.000.000.000.010.01
YoY Growth--25.53%-14.53%-18.69%-46.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%11.33%82.95%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.34%0.42%0.47%0.89%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.15%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.876.794.08
Cash Retained (M)18.0918.0918.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.87-6.79-4.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.2311.3014.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,220.391,220.391,220.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Fair Value$0.52$0.66$0.85
Upside / Downside-93.26%-91.33%-88.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.3456.4658.6760.9763.3565.8367.80
Payout Ratio66.70%71.36%76.02%80.68%85.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.2440.2944.6049.1954.0659.2462.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Year 1 PV (M)36.2836.6336.98
Year 2 PV (M)36.1636.8637.57
Year 3 PV (M)35.9036.9638.03
Year 4 PV (M)35.5236.9338.37
Year 5 PV (M)35.0536.7938.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)530.06556.32583.61
Equity Value (M)708.97740.48773.16
Shares Outstanding (M)1,220.391,220.391,220.39
Fair Value$0.58$0.61$0.63
Upside / Downside-92.43%-92.09%-91.74%

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