Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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COFCO Capital Holdings Co., Ltd. (002423.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.25 - $47.76$20.77
Multi-Stage$7.70 - $8.42$8.05
Blended Fair Value$14.41
Current Price$13.39
Upside7.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.61%74.60%0.270.270.350.250.030.040.030.020.020.01
YoY Growth---0.36%-23.51%37.79%804.64%-31.11%27.10%30.86%62.78%13.91%1,204.69%
Dividend Yield--2.14%3.49%4.88%3.15%0.32%0.46%0.28%0.17%0.11%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)957.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)272.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)685.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)191.60119.7571.85
Cash Retained (M)685.38685.38685.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-191.60-119.75-71.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)493.79565.64613.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,303.962,303.962,303.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.25$20.77$47.76
Upside / Downside-8.54%55.10%256.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)957.981,020.241,086.561,157.191,232.401,312.511,351.88
Payout Ratio28.45%40.76%53.07%65.38%77.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)272.59415.89576.67756.59957.471,181.261,250.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)380.18383.78387.39
Year 2 PV (M)481.89491.07500.33
Year 3 PV (M)577.96594.55611.45
Year 4 PV (M)668.60694.31720.76
Year 5 PV (M)754.05790.47828.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,876.8815,595.4416,341.50
Equity Value (M)17,739.5618,549.6219,389.72
Shares Outstanding (M)2,303.962,303.962,303.96
Fair Value$7.70$8.05$8.42
Upside / Downside-42.50%-39.87%-37.15%

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