Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Pret Composites Co., Ltd. (002324.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.63 - $46.69$43.75
Multi-Stage$48.91 - $53.68$51.25
Blended Fair Value$47.50
Current Price$14.72
Upside222.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.36%10.18%0.170.140.230.070.080.120.070.060.050.04
YoY Growth--28.51%-41.24%208.32%-10.50%-28.32%60.42%15.10%32.03%10.73%-34.59%
Dividend Yield--1.81%1.30%1.59%0.61%0.57%1.59%1.89%1.36%0.81%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)257.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)92.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.4132.1319.28
Cash Retained (M)92.1492.1492.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.41-32.13-19.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.7360.0172.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,095.021,095.021,095.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate-9.21%-9.21%-9.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.63$43.75$46.69
Upside / Downside169.20%197.23%217.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)257.06273.77291.56310.52330.70352.19362.76
Payout Ratio64.15%69.32%74.49%79.66%84.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.92189.79217.19247.36280.54316.98335.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-9.21%-9.21%-9.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)207.07209.04211.00
Year 2 PV (M)258.56263.49268.46
Year 3 PV (M)321.30330.52339.92
Year 4 PV (M)397.58412.87428.59
Year 5 PV (M)490.14513.81538.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,886.6754,392.8256,994.88
Equity Value (M)53,561.3256,122.5458,781.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,095.021,095.021,095.02
Fair Value$48.91$51.25$53.68
Upside / Downside232.29%248.18%264.68%

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