Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.,Ltd (002284.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$86.59 - $102.05$95.62
Multi-Stage$62.65 - $68.86$65.70
Blended Fair Value$80.66
Current Price$13.04
Upside518.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.39%5.38%0.110.110.150.040.030.030.130.130.120.07
YoY Growth---5.68%-24.02%257.18%54.16%7.03%-81.02%1.85%7.86%69.23%13.29%
Dividend Yield--1.09%1.45%1.85%0.55%0.53%0.54%2.30%1.68%0.87%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)384.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)337.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.8648.0428.82
Cash Retained (M)337.24337.24337.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.86-48.04-28.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)260.37289.20308.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)738.49738.49738.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate-0.18%-0.18%-0.18%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Fair Value$86.59$95.62$102.05
Upside / Downside564.06%633.30%682.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)384.31403.52423.70444.89467.14490.50505.22
Payout Ratio12.25%27.80%43.35%58.90%74.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.07112.17183.67262.04347.78441.45467.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.18%-0.18%-0.18%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Year 1 PV (M)111.31112.38113.45
Year 2 PV (M)180.85184.34187.87
Year 3 PV (M)256.02263.47271.07
Year 4 PV (M)337.17350.33363.87
Year 5 PV (M)424.68445.49467.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,956.8747,160.2149,449.10
Equity Value (M)46,266.8948,516.2250,852.47
Shares Outstanding (M)738.49738.49738.49
Fair Value$62.65$65.70$68.86
Upside / Downside380.45%403.80%428.06%

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