Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhefu Holding Group Co., Ltd. (002266.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.35 - $35.13$32.92
Multi-Stage$5.12 - $5.60$5.36
Blended Fair Value$19.14
Current Price$4.05
Upside372.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.40%15.43%0.070.100.130.090.010.040.020.010.010.02
YoY Growth---24.88%-23.29%47.76%747.56%-74.01%125.14%16.99%9.52%-23.95%2.03%
Dividend Yield--2.19%2.75%3.12%1.62%0.18%1.08%0.34%0.35%0.25%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)934.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)349.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)584.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)186.92116.8270.09
Cash Retained (M)584.98584.98584.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-186.92-116.82-70.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)398.06468.15514.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,290.375,290.375,290.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.35$32.92$35.13
Upside / Downside254.31%712.96%767.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)934.59995.341,060.041,128.941,202.321,280.471,318.88
Payout Ratio37.41%47.93%58.44%68.96%79.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)349.61477.03619.54778.55955.621,152.421,219.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)443.55447.75451.96
Year 2 PV (M)535.62545.82556.12
Year 3 PV (M)625.85643.82662.12
Year 4 PV (M)714.27741.74769.99
Year 5 PV (M)800.91839.59879.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,956.8025,113.9326,315.34
Equity Value (M)27,077.0028,332.6429,635.28
Shares Outstanding (M)5,290.375,290.375,290.37
Fair Value$5.12$5.36$5.60
Upside / Downside26.37%32.23%38.31%

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