Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Hexing Packaging Printing Co., Ltd. (002228.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.25 - $6.60$3.55
Multi-Stage$1.50 - $1.64$1.57
Blended Fair Value$2.56
Current Price$3.19
Upside-19.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.36%9.11%0.150.160.200.150.120.090.130.090.090.07
YoY Growth---7.97%-18.95%29.70%27.70%26.60%-29.11%43.15%-2.07%34.46%14.40%
Dividend Yield--4.82%5.62%5.84%4.10%3.12%2.82%2.09%2.15%1.81%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)82.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.7513.598.16
Cash Retained (M)82.3982.3982.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.75-13.59-8.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)60.6468.8074.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,216.481,216.481,216.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.25$3.55$6.60
Upside / Downside-29.33%11.28%106.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108.75115.82123.34131.36139.90148.99153.46
Payout Ratio24.24%37.39%50.54%63.69%76.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.3643.3062.3483.67107.51134.09141.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.4139.7840.16
Year 2 PV (M)51.6452.6253.61
Year 3 PV (M)63.0764.8866.73
Year 4 PV (M)73.7676.5979.51
Year 5 PV (M)83.7287.7791.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,515.871,589.091,665.11
Equity Value (M)1,827.461,910.731,997.08
Shares Outstanding (M)1,216.481,216.481,216.48
Fair Value$1.50$1.57$1.64
Upside / Downside-52.91%-50.76%-48.54%

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