Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Kangqiang Electronics Co., Ltd (002119.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.77 - $2.52$2.14
Multi-Stage$3.28 - $3.61$3.45
Blended Fair Value$2.79
Current Price$17.64
Upside-84.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.07%-3.20%0.080.080.100.030.100.100.130.130.060.08
YoY Growth---4.50%-20.94%288.68%-74.85%4.44%-21.85%-3.44%117.00%-22.74%-25.92%
Dividend Yield--0.45%0.69%0.69%0.20%1.20%0.88%1.41%1.49%0.58%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.0412.527.51
Cash Retained (M)80.6080.6080.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.04-12.52-7.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)60.5768.0873.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)372.78372.78372.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate-3.42%-2.42%-1.42%
Fair Value$1.77$2.14$2.52
Upside / Downside-89.96%-87.88%-85.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.1997.7795.4093.1090.8588.6691.32
Payout Ratio19.54%33.64%47.73%61.82%75.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.5832.8845.5357.5568.9679.7984.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate-3.42%-2.42%-1.42%
Year 1 PV (M)30.0530.3630.67
Year 2 PV (M)38.0238.8139.61
Year 3 PV (M)43.9145.2946.70
Year 4 PV (M)48.0850.1052.19
Year 5 PV (M)50.8353.5256.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,012.621,066.141,121.90
Equity Value (M)1,223.521,284.221,347.38
Shares Outstanding (M)372.78372.78372.78
Fair Value$3.28$3.45$3.61
Upside / Downside-81.39%-80.47%-79.51%

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