Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Weida Machinery Co., Ltd. (002026.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.86 - $43.25$25.51
Multi-Stage$11.46 - $12.53$11.99
Blended Fair Value$18.75
Current Price$14.22
Upside31.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.41%21.74%0.180.080.180.110.080.080.060.060.050.04
YoY Growth--118.28%-54.17%71.35%41.63%0.00%33.33%0.00%13.14%19.20%63.84%
Dividend Yield--1.58%1.02%1.78%0.79%0.70%1.55%0.81%0.78%0.47%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)330.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)296.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.0841.3024.78
Cash Retained (M)296.24296.24296.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.08-41.30-24.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)230.16254.94271.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)447.15447.15447.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.68
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.86$25.51$43.25
Upside / Downside18.57%79.42%204.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)330.38351.85374.72399.08425.02452.64466.22
Payout Ratio10.33%26.27%42.20%58.13%74.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.1492.42158.13232.00314.80407.38431.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)83.8484.6485.43
Year 2 PV (M)130.13132.61135.12
Year 3 PV (M)173.20178.17183.23
Year 4 PV (M)213.19221.39229.82
Year 5 PV (M)250.28262.37274.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,274.294,480.744,695.10
Equity Value (M)5,124.945,359.925,603.62
Shares Outstanding (M)447.15447.15447.15
Fair Value$11.46$11.99$12.53
Upside / Downside-19.40%-15.70%-11.87%

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