Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yifan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002019.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.61 - $5.80$4.60
Multi-Stage$9.91 - $10.93$10.41
Blended Fair Value$7.51
Current Price$13.87
Upside-45.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.26%0.00%0.170.060.070.120.170.160.410.150.080.06
YoY Growth--168.84%-16.11%-37.58%-31.48%5.01%-60.16%173.73%82.37%47.89%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.43%0.54%0.53%0.79%0.85%1.01%2.99%0.68%0.49%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)407.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)162.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)244.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.4750.9230.55
Cash Retained (M)244.48244.48244.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.47-50.92-30.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.00193.56213.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.901,168.901,168.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.61$4.60$5.80
Upside / Downside-73.94%-66.81%-58.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)407.37403.30399.27395.27391.32387.41399.03
Payout Ratio39.99%49.99%59.99%69.99%80.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)162.90201.61239.53276.67313.05348.67369.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)189.06190.99192.92
Year 2 PV (M)210.65214.97219.33
Year 3 PV (M)228.17235.23242.43
Year 4 PV (M)242.10252.14262.48
Year 5 PV (M)252.87266.04279.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,463.8011,008.6811,576.02
Equity Value (M)11,586.6612,168.0412,772.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.901,168.901,168.90
Fair Value$9.91$10.41$10.93
Upside / Downside-28.53%-24.95%-21.22%

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