Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lubair Aviation Technology (001316.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.94 - $15.54$13.21
Multi-Stage$16.03 - $17.63$16.82
Blended Fair Value$15.01
Current Price$32.53
Upside-53.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-5.97%0.00%0.650.610.000.011.230.890.060.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.34%0.00%-100.00%-99.24%38.71%1,294.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.90%1.97%0.00%0.03%4.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)134.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.9016.8110.09
Cash Retained (M)134.32134.32134.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.90-16.81-10.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)107.42117.50124.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.6681.6681.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.321.441.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.321.441.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.441.52
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.94$13.21$15.54
Upside / Downside-66.37%-59.40%-52.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134.51133.16131.83130.51129.21127.91131.75
Payout Ratio0.14%18.11%36.08%54.06%72.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.1924.1247.5770.5593.07115.12121.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)21.7421.9722.19
Year 2 PV (M)38.6639.4540.26
Year 3 PV (M)51.6953.2954.92
Year 4 PV (M)61.4764.0266.65
Year 5 PV (M)68.5572.1275.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,066.671,122.211,180.04
Equity Value (M)1,308.791,373.071,439.90
Shares Outstanding (M)81.6681.6681.66
Fair Value$16.03$16.82$17.63
Upside / Downside-50.73%-48.31%-45.79%

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