Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Huadong Medicine Co., Ltd (000963.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$172.37 - $419.43$393.07
Multi-Stage$60.90 - $66.68$63.74
Blended Fair Value$228.40
Current Price$41.55
Upside449.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.43%14.82%0.970.340.330.260.320.330.440.410.400.30
YoY Growth--186.46%3.07%25.30%-18.67%-0.86%-25.81%5.75%4.34%31.66%23.84%
Dividend Yield--2.65%1.08%0.71%0.79%0.87%1.87%1.55%1.14%1.54%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,697.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,101.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,596.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)739.54462.21277.33
Cash Retained (M)2,596.382,596.382,596.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-739.54-462.21-277.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,856.842,134.172,319.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,753.281,753.281,753.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.061.221.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.061.221.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.691.851.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$172.37$393.07$419.43
Upside / Downside314.86%846.01%909.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,697.693,938.044,194.024,466.634,756.965,066.165,218.15
Payout Ratio29.78%41.83%53.87%65.91%77.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,101.321,647.172,259.332,944.113,708.374,559.554,826.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,531.651,546.161,560.68
Year 2 PV (M)1,953.531,990.742,028.30
Year 3 PV (M)2,367.092,435.042,504.28
Year 4 PV (M)2,772.452,879.072,988.74
Year 5 PV (M)3,169.733,322.833,481.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,985.9699,573.82104,337.27
Equity Value (M)106,780.41111,747.67116,901.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1,753.281,753.281,753.28
Fair Value$60.90$63.74$66.68
Upside / Downside46.58%53.40%60.47%

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