Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Shougang Co., Ltd. (000959.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.67 - $5.42$3.73
Multi-Stage$4.12 - $4.52$4.32
Blended Fair Value$4.03
Current Price$4.26
Upside-5.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.36%3.56%0.180.190.320.400.340.330.320.320.310.39
YoY Growth---5.55%-39.92%-19.89%16.35%3.47%3.18%-0.42%3.72%-19.98%204.13%
Dividend Yield--5.40%5.90%8.37%7.66%7.42%11.25%7.17%6.52%4.35%8.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,220.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)874.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)346.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)244.17152.6191.56
Cash Retained (M)346.05346.05346.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-244.17-152.61-91.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)101.88193.45254.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,754.377,754.377,754.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate1.56%2.56%3.56%
Fair Value$2.67$3.73$5.42
Upside / Downside-37.23%-12.35%27.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,220.851,252.171,284.281,317.221,351.001,385.651,427.22
Payout Ratio71.65%75.32%78.99%82.66%86.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)874.80943.181,014.491,088.841,166.331,247.091,320.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate1.56%2.56%3.56%
Year 1 PV (M)878.23886.87895.52
Year 2 PV (M)879.57896.98914.55
Year 3 PV (M)879.02905.24931.98
Year 4 PV (M)876.74911.78947.86
Year 5 PV (M)872.88916.71962.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,592.0028,977.3630,417.82
Equity Value (M)31,978.4433,494.9435,070.01
Shares Outstanding (M)7,754.377,754.377,754.37
Fair Value$4.12$4.32$4.52
Upside / Downside-3.19%1.40%6.16%

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