Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SPIC Industry-Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. (000958.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.95 - $33.15$31.07
Multi-Stage$5.30 - $5.80$5.54
Blended Fair Value$18.31
Current Price$6.54
Upside179.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.95%12.78%0.150.140.170.160.280.080.100.040.010.02
YoY Growth--11.11%-20.79%8.84%-44.10%243.36%-19.81%144.36%399.87%-59.20%-54.70%
Dividend Yield--2.22%3.57%3.98%2.75%5.52%1.90%1.89%0.91%0.12%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)897.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)543.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)353.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)179.49112.1867.31
Cash Retained (M)353.71353.71353.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-179.49-112.18-67.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)174.22241.53286.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,383.365,383.365,383.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.150.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.95$31.07$33.15
Upside / Downside174.52%375.07%406.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)897.44955.771,017.901,084.061,154.531,229.571,266.46
Payout Ratio60.59%66.47%72.35%78.23%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)543.73635.30736.47848.11971.161,106.611,171.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)592.12597.74603.35
Year 2 PV (M)639.78651.96664.26
Year 3 PV (M)686.69706.40726.49
Year 4 PV (M)732.88761.07790.06
Year 5 PV (M)778.35815.95854.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,093.0526,305.0527,563.44
Equity Value (M)28,522.8829,838.1731,202.58
Shares Outstanding (M)5,383.365,383.365,383.36
Fair Value$5.30$5.54$5.80
Upside / Downside-18.99%-15.25%-11.37%

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